Colorado State University
I am interested in studying and improving the community's knowledge of
tropical cyclones through dynamical and statistical techniques. In the
Schubert Research Group, we seek to systematically simplify the atmosphere
to get at the "why" of atmospheric phenomena. I feel that the following
excerpt from one of Lorenz's papers (1960) provides excellent motivation
for our work.
"In order to make the best attainable forecast of the future weather, it
would be desirable to express the physical laws as exactly as possible, and
determine the initial conditions as precisely as possible. Yet the ultimate
achievement of producing perfect forecasts, by applying equations already
known to be exact to initial conditions already known to be precise, if
such a feat were possible, would not by itself increase our understanding
of the atmosphere, no matter how important it might be from other
considerations. For example, if we should observe a hurricane, we might ask
ourselves, 'Why did this hurricane form?' If we could determine the exact
conditions at an earlier time, and if we should feed these conditions,
together with a program for integrating the exact equations, into an
electronic computer, we should in due time receive a forecast from the
computer, which would show the presence of a hurricane. We then might still
be justified in asking why the hurricane formed. The answer that the
physical laws required a hurricane to form from the given antecedent
conditions might not satisfy us, since we were aware of that fact even
before integrating the equations." -- E.N. Lorenz
Using simplified dynamical models, I am working to understand the role
of diabatic heating in tropical cyclone rapid intensification. Also, I am
evaluating the effects of Burger's "shock-like" structures in the hurricane
boundary layer on eyewall replacement cycles and the existence of warm-ring
structures in intense tropical cyclones. In addition to my theoretical
work, I have continued to collaborate with researchers at NOAA ESRL to
assimilate a CIRA IR wind retrieval product around the core of tropical
cyclones into the GFS with hopes of producing a more realistic vortex. Feel
free to contact me about my work and research interests.
Lorenz, E. N., 1960: Maximum Simplification of the Dynamic Equations.
Tellus, 12, 243–254.
- Gonzalez, A. O., C. J. Slocum, R. K. Taft, and W. H. Schubert, 2015: Dynamics of the ITCZ boundary layer. J. Atmos. Sci., In Press, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-15-0267.1. [Available online at http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0298.1.]
- Knaff, J. A., C. J. Slocum, K. D. Musgrave, C. R. Sampson, and B. Strahl, 2015: Using routinely available information to estimate tropical cyclone wind structure. Mon. Wea. Rev., In Press, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-15-0267.1. [Available online at http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0267.1.]
- Schubert, W. H., C. J. Slocum, and R. K. Taft, 2015: Forced, balanced model of tropical cyclone intensification. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, In press, doi:10.2151/jmsj.2016-007. [Available online at http://jmsj.metsoc.jp/EOR/2016-007.pdf.]
- Kepert, J., Y-H Huang, S. Kanada, M. Powell, J. Schwendike, C. J. Slocum A. Wada, C-C Wu, and J. Zhang, 2014: Topic 4.5 Role of the Boundary Layer. IWTC-VIII, Jeju, Republic of Korea. [Available at http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/documents/Topic4.5.pdf.]
- Slocum, C. J., G. J. Williams, R. K. Taft, and W. H. Schubert, 2014:
Tropical cyclone boundary layer shocks. [Available online at http://arxiv.org/abs/1405.7939.]
Selected Presentations and Talks
"Tropical cyclone boundary layer shocks and shock-like structures." AMS 31th Conference on
Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, San Diego, CA. 2014.
- "Idealized model results of tropical cyclone boundary layer shocks."
NCAR/NOAA/CSU Tropical Cyclone Workshop,
Boulder, CO. 2014.
"Satellite applications to hurricane intensity forecasting." CoRP
Science Symposium, Madison, WI. 2013.
- "Interpretation of Hurricane Concentric Eyewalls as Boundary Layer
Shock-like Structures." NCAR/NOAA/CSU Tropical Cyclone Workshop,
Fort Collins, CO. 2013.
- "Small-scale Tropical Cyclone Dynamics." NCAR/NOAA/CSU Tropical
Cyclone Workshop, Boulder, CO. 2012.
- "Diagnosing the Influence of Diabatic Heating on HWRF
Intensity Change Using a Balanced Vortex Model." HFIP Diagnostics
Workshop, Silver Spring, MD (Virtual). 2012.
"Determining Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change through
Balanced Vortex Model Applications." AMS 30th Conference on
Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Ponte Vedra Beach, FL. 2012.
"Improved Analysis of the Tropical Cyclone Outer Wind Structure
Using IR Satellite Wind Retrievals in a Global Numerical Weather
Prediction Model." AMS 15th Symposium on Integrated Observing
and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans and Land Surface
(IOAS_AOLS), Seattle, WA. 2011.